​​​​​​​The global market for electric vehicles is growing every year

Abstract
The global market for electric vehicles is growing every year. Accordingly, its influence on the global energy system is also increasing, and these processes will contribute to the growth of electricity consumption. In addition, to supply energy to electric vehicles, it is necessary to create an appropriate charging infrastructure. All this, in turn, will require the commissioning of additional energy capacities and a change in the nature of the electrical load schedule. In my abstract, I will consider the positive and negative aspects of the impact of electric vehicles on the existing energy system, and highlight the main proposals that can improve this impact in practice. Also important in my essay will be the work of states and governments with the power market and electric vehicles. Since they still have little experience in the field of electric vehicles, some of their actions may seem ineffective. However, the existing reality forces them to continue developing the electric vehicle market and adjust it to the needs of the state.Key words: Power market, electric vehicles, fuel, charging, energy, governments.IntroductionIt's no secret that the natural resources that form the basis for the production of fuel are exhaustible. This means that sooner or later there will come a time when there will be nothing to fill cars with and nothing to heat and light cities and villages with. We are assured that this time will not come soon, at least not in our century. However, the rapid growth of road transport in the world casts doubt on this.In addition to traditional fuel, Americans are already widely using all kinds of alternative energy sources. A striking example is electric vehicles and cars with combined engines, which have recently become popular in the West, especially in large metropolitan areas. The advantages of such vehicles over traditional ones are the complete absence of exhaust gases or their small proportion and the low cost of "fuel". In the future, the simple design of electric vehicles and, as a result, the lower cost of spare parts, as compared with current prices for auto parts for foreign cars, can be added as advantages.An increase in the number of electric vehicles is unlikely to cause a crisis in the global electrical system, but it can significantly change the time curve of the load. How critical is this and how can we influence this change?On the one hand, the explosive increase in the number of electric vehicles on the roads should lead to the same increase in electricity consumption, but as the modeling of the situation in Germany (where everything is good with statistics, accounting and analysis) shows, the predicted growth in electric vehicles will not lead to a significant increase in the overall demand for electricity in the power grid in the short and medium term. And, consequently, there is no need for the urgent construction of new generating facilities.The historical aspect of the phenomenon of electric vehiclesTo begin with, I would like to explain the phenomenon of electric vehicles. The term "electric vehicle" (EV) generally refers to a vehicle that is driven by an electric motor powered by a self-contained power source. According to their type, electric vehicles are divided into hybrid (HEV), charged by an internal combustion engine (in such cars, electric mileage is extremely limited), and plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Plug-in hybrids (plug-in hybrids) are divided into several types: parallel - they combine the operation of electric and gasoline engines and allow charging the battery from the network; series-parallel - capable of operating as both serial and parallel hybrid vehicles with an electric motor as the main drive; sequential (REEV / REX) - electric vehicles with an increased range. In this type of hybrid, the car is always powered by an electric motor that is powered directly from the battery, but the battery itself is charged while driving by the built-in fuel generator. And finally, fully electric vehicles (EV/BEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV), which include an electrochemical generator to convert hydrogen into electrical energy.The autonomy or driving range of modern hybrid cars reaches 750 km or more. In the near future, it can reach one thousand kilometers. Serial all-electric cars, as a rule, have autonomy of 250–300 km. The declared autonomy of the top modification of the Tesla Model 3 is approaching 500 km, and the maximum autonomy of the Tesla Model S, according to the EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency), exceeds 600 km. Such high autonomy of Tesla electric vehicles was achieved primarily through the use of high-capacity batteries, as well as through the optimization of the battery management system. However, it should be noted that the American company Tesla has repeatedly come across for overestimating the technical characteristics of its cars.As for history, the first models of structures that can be attributed to an electric car were assembled in the years 1830-1840. The British R. Anderson and R. Davidson and the American T. Davenport are considered to be the pioneers. The end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century can be called the boom of electric vehicles (www.electric vehicles.ru). During this period, the production of electric vehicles was established both in Europe (mainly in England) and in the USA. The production of electric vehicles by the beginning of the twentieth century in the United States reached 10 thousand units. In New York in 1910, up to 70,000 electric taxis operated. Progress is characterized by an increase in the speed of the electric vehicle. In 1899, an electric car reached a speed of 106 km/h in France.After the boom at the turn of the century, the production of electric vehicles steadily declined and practically ceased in the 1940s. Electric vehicles have given way to cars with an internal combustion engine. The reason for this was serious disadvantages, the main of which was the insufficient capacity of lead-acid batteries, which were also heavy and were ballast, requiring increased energy consumption when driving an electric vehicle.The revival of electric vehicles occurred in the 70s of the twentieth century. It was associated with the outbreak of the global energy crisis and the growing severity of environmental issues. The global energy crisis has led to an increase in the price of crude oil, which is reflected in the price of motor fuel, and car exhaust gases have become an increasing environmental impact in megacities. The production of electric vehicles began to engage in various companies, mainly in the United States. So, an electric car called Sity Car was able to travel up to 95 km without recharging with a maximum speed of 71 km/h. In the same years, the American engineer W. Wouk developed the world's first hybrid car Buick Skylark with a 20 kW electric motor. In subsequent years, car manufacturers began to pay more and more attention to environmental issues. Environmental considerations began to play an ever-increasing role in the development of new car models: aerodynamics were improved, fuel consumption was reduced, devices were introduced that reduce the toxicity of exhaust gases, and models of electric vehicles were developed with a qualitatively new type of battery - lithium-ion with an increased charge capacity and lighter weight compared to lead acid batteries.The impact of electric vehicles on the global electricity marketElectric vehicles (EVs), especially the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and the all-battery vehicles (BEV), are now a commercial reality facing rapid expansion. In Norway BEVs are currently outselling conventional cars, with sales currently around 1200 a month (over 10% of all car sales). For example, in in the US, where in early 2011 the Government enforced subsidies including a $7500 tax credit for BEVs buyers, the average annual EV sales in 2013–2014 amounted to about 580,000 units (3.6% of the overall vehicle sales), up by 107% over 2010–2011 (2.3% of the overall vehicle sales). After years of wrong projections and failure of many start-up electric car makers (Aptera, Better Place, Coda and Fisker etc.), the EVs market is starting to flourish. In China, the world's largest car market, heavily supported by the Government with the aim to alleviate the air pollution burden, save hydrocarbon fuels and boost another manufacturing leading industry, a brand new EV industry was established in the last decade 3. After deployment of this new industry, in middle of 2014 the Government agreed that 30% of all vehicles bought by central and local Government bodies between 2014 and 2016 will have to be electric. Furthermore, buyers of electric cars and other types of new energy vehicles will be exempted from sales tax (equal to 10% tax of the vehicle's net value) until the end of 2017. In Japan, where Government introduced the first EV incentive program in 1996, sales of the hybrid- and EV markets in 2013 grew to an estimated 1.6 million units 5. Large growth, exceeding 25% year over year, was lately reported also for Germany, where the EV market is at its debut.In brief, a transportation technology first introduced to the marketplace in the late 1890s in Europe (and in the United States; for a nice historic account up to 2009), to be replaced since 1910 by Ford's alternative low-cost technology, that is, the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle produced en masse using Taylor's serial production, is finally flourishing. Virtually all the large car manufacturing companies are currently expanding their offerings of EVs; while new companies and conventional utilities are literally building out the electric car charging infrastructure. For example, the overall number of public charging stations in the US rose to 19,000 by the end of 2013 compared to 3300 in 2011.Battery manufacturers too, most of which are located in South East Asia, are expanding their offerings in terms of both size and technology, switching from supplies of older generation nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries to Li-ion and lithium-titanate-oxide batteries, so much that revenues from Li-ion batteries in consumer vehicles are expected to grow from $3.2 billion in 2013 to $24.1 billion in 2023.This evolution is occurring almost simultaneously to large-scale adoption of renewable energy sources that, in a world of ever more uncertain fossil fuels market due to both geopolitical instability and steadily reducing gap between economically viable crude oil supply and demand 10, for example, the global installed solar PV capacity has reached 182 GW in 2014 11. It was less than 1 GW in 2003. In the course of 2015 (in the conservative case) at least another 60 GW will be installed worldwide. In the following, thus, we analyze the impact of EVs' adoption onto the power market, both in the presence and in the absence of significant solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. Results are derived taking into consideration Italy's power market wherein, between 2008 and 2013, a huge bulk of 18 GW photovoltaic power was installed. The methodology can be extended to other power markets in countries, both in the European Union and beyond, where prices are formed by similar market processes, so that the conclusions can be relevant to a wider international audience of policymakers.A subtle and yet very significant impact of the electrification of private mobility is deemed to occur on the power market. The power grid is not susceptible to be affected by relevant technical problems or stability issues, but rather to benefit from the two-way power flux capabilities of modern EVs. Some clues, although not a conclusive proof, about the resilience of the power grid to highly variable inputs can be found in the absence of problems during the steep growth of the solar PV power installed in Italy from few tenths of MW to about 17 GW during the 2009–2012 time framework. On the other hand, the market power price is likely to be affected by the growing demand due the increasing adoption of EVs. This is the subject of the following analysis, specifically applied to the Italian wholesale electricity market (IPEX).The motor gasoline monthly consumption observed during 2007 is representative of the precrisis demand and represents the fuel energy to be replaced by electricity. The intrinsic energy content of motor gasoline was assumed to be 12 kWh/kg, whereas ICE's energy efficiency was set equal to 20%, and that of EV equal to 80%. Due to EV’s overwhelming impact on the power price paid by customers, only peak hours of the wholesale electric market will be considered. Although nowadays BEVs are mainly charged at night, our assumption is that along with the increasing diffusion of BEVs their charging during daylight (8 am to 8 pm) will be promoted in order to boost both the impact of the increased power demand upon its market price and the coupling of BEVs spreading with the expansion of the solar photovoltaic installed power. Both mileage and charging during daylight are assumed to cover 80% of the respective daily Figures. Moreover, according to the same above arguments, only the week's working days are considered (Monday to Friday), when power demand is much higher than in the week-end, while the gasoline consumption and charging needs are estimated at the same level as in the week-end, that is, 5/7 or about 71.4% out of the total. Consequently, charging during peak hours will account for about (80 · 71.4/100) % = 57.1% of the total additional power demand.The other hypotheses concern the time of complete replacement of ICE vehicles with EVs, set to span 6 or 12 years, starting from 2008. The choice of 6 years was due to the considerations that 2007 was the last precrisis year. After that, the power demand started to fall. Year 2013 was the last year for which power data were available. The same period for the complete replacement of ICE vehicles with EVs was then doubled to 12 years in order to investigate the relative impact of the replacement time upon the power market.It is also worth noting that, along with the faster adoption of EVs, during 2008–2013 the annual average hourly electricity demand would have dropped by only about 1000 MW. A three times larger decline (3000 MW) in demand would have occurred assuming the slower adoption of EVs. Actually, due to the earnest economic crisis what really happened in Italy was a collapse of the annual average hourly electricity demand by about 5500 MW, or around 12%.Prospects and forecasts of the impact of electric vehicles on the electricity marketAccording to calculations, by 2030, electric vehicles will increase the total energy consumption by about 5 GW, which is about 1%. By 2050, this figure will increase to 20 GW, which will be 4% of the total electricity consumption. All of these additional capacities are covered by the planned commissioning of generating capacities powered by renewable energy sources, including wind and solar energy.While the increase in electric vehicle sales is unlikely to lead to a significant increase in overall electricity demand, it is likely to change the grid load curve. Evening peak loads will have to increase, when owners plug in their electric vehicles when they return home from work, and commercial vehicles get up for nightly charging after the end of the working day. However, even in this case, we can talk about a relatively small percentage increase in peak load: about 1 percent by 2030 and about 5 percent by 2050. Such an increase is not critical for the country's energy system as a whole, but the situation can change markedly if we switch from the country's energy system to local, regional power networks. Since the distribution of electric vehicles will not be even, suburbs with a large number of private electric vehicles and private charging stations in garages are likely to become hot spots on the overall grid map.Suburban hot spots, coupled with high-capacity public EV charging points and commercial vehicle charging points, will greatly increase local peak loads on local networks. It is possible to simulate such a peak: for an average microdistrict (a small settlement served by one substation) of 150 small private houses with a 25% penetration of electric vehicles in the transport fleet, according to the calculation, the peak load on the network will increase by 30%.This is not as scary as it seems at first glance, even despite the 30% increase in network load. The fact is that although 1 electric car can actually double the consumption of one private house, but due to aggregation across many households (with and without electric cars), the average peak load per substation is still tolerable, even in the absence of delayed smart charging.Of course, investments in power system upgrades or alternative upgrades to deal with the increase in load will be inevitable, but they can still be significantly reduced if the root causes of the increase in load are addressed. An example is the complete absence of peak loads by shifting the charging time of electric vehicles to periods of low energy consumption. Not all the time, while the electric car is connected to the charging station, it is being charged. For a significant period of time, the electric car is either slightly recharged or simply idle. These downtime periods can range from 80% for private charging stations to 25% for public ones. Such a significant period of downtime makes it possible to shift the charging time from peak time to less loaded.The development of the idea of ​​intelligent control of charging stations in the future may be the "electric vehicle-grid" system, which will not only be able to flexibly change the time and volume of charging electric vehicles depending on the load on the electrical network, but will also allow electric vehicles, under certain conditions, to return part of the energy back to the network, finally smoothing power demand curve. According to surveys, the majority of electric vehicle owners expressed their willingness to participate in such a smart charging network system, as such participation could save them several hundred euros per year.To be able to realize these benefits, charging station operators, power grids and private station owners need to make small investments in smart charging infrastructure and develop common rules of operation. This is some work, but once it is done, electric vehicles will no longer be a threat to the grid. Instead, they will become a source of income for their owners, and make the system as a whole more cost-effective, fault-tolerant and environmentally friendly.ConclusionThe development of electric transport is now considered by many countries of the world as a way to solve existing environmental problems, the possibility of creating new markets for innovative products, and therefore is actively supported by the state in various ways. At the same time, the main barriers to the development of "green" transport are cost (high price for electric vehicles) and infrastructure (lack of the necessary structure for charging, replacing and recycling batteries). The main drivers of growth in the global electric vehicle market, experts include measures of state support for demand for environmentally friendly modes of transport, adopted in many European countries, in the United States and China, as well as technological advances in the production of batteries, which reduce the cost of the most expensive element of an electric vehicle - the battery.As the solar revolution continues with electrification of transportation now slowly, but inexorably, taking place, Governments in both developed and developing nations should wisely continue to encourage the adoption of electric mobility through a number of well-known incentives (tax breaks, free parking, free access to reserved areas etc.). The outcomes for their countries will be beneficial not only in terms of reduced pollution and better quality of life in urban areas, but eminently advantageous from an economic viewpoint. Incentives will be rapidly repaid by the fall of hydrocarbon imports, as well as by the fast reduction in electricity costs as the impact of PV generation on the power market is synergistically magnified by a growing electricity demand. In a medium-sized, well-developed market such as Italy, where the solar PV installations have grown from nearly zero to some 18 GW of nominal power in a few years, quantitative figures could be assessed. Such figures suggest that the benefits of the PV generation upon the power price – having been severely limited by the decrease in the power demand – will be significantly amplified by a program of replacement of ICE vehicles with BEVs. Such program would support the power demand and, in turn, produce increasing financial savings on the power side, while abating the gasoline bill and producing a self-sustainable virtuous cycle.Works citedAlbanese, L., Ciriminna, R., Meneguzzo, F. and Pagliaro, M. (2015), The impact of electric vehicles on the power market. Energy Sci Eng, 3: 300-309.Gonçalves, R. L., et al. "Impact of electric vehicles on the electricity prices and on the load curves of the Iberian electricity market." 2013 10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2013. Grahn, Pia, and Lennart Söder. "The customer perspective of the electric vehicles role on the electricity market." 2011 8th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2011. Hauke Engel,Russell Hensley,Stefan Knupfer and Shivika Sahdev. (2018), The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems. McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.Kempton, Willett, and Steven E. Letendre. "Electric vehicles as a new power source for electric utilities." Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 2.3 (1997): 157-175. Lopes, João A. Peças, Filipe Joel Soares, and Pedro M. Rocha Almeida. "Integration of electric vehicles in the electric power system." Proceedings of the IEEE 99.1 (2010): 168-183. Naharudinsyah, Ilham, and Steffen Limmer. "Optimal charging of electric vehicles with trading on the intraday electricity market." Energies 11.6 (2018): 1416. Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) - an abbreviation meaning a hybrid car in which there are 2 engines: an internal combustion engine and an electric motor. The battery of hybrid vehicles cannot be charged from external sources, so pure electric mileage in hybrids is extremely low.Internal combustion engine - it is a heat engine in which the combustion of fuel takes place with an oxidizer (usually air) in a combustion chamber which is an integral part of the working fluid flow circuit.Driving range - is the estimated distance one can drive at a given quantity of fuel in the car and the calculated Average fuel economy.Charging stations - is a piece of equipment that supplies electrical power for charging plug-in electric vehicles (including hybrids, neighborhood electric vehicles, trucks, buses, and others).Nickel-metal hydride batteries- use hydrogen to store energy, with nickel and another metal (such as titanium) keeping a lid on the hydrogen ions. NiMH batteries are larger and heavier than Li-ion batteries. Li-ion and lithium-titanate-oxide batteries - are made of carbon and highly reactive lithium, which can store a lot of energy. Li-ion and NiMH batteries can actually hold a similar amount of power, but the lithium-ion cells can be charged and discharged more rapidly. Generating capacity - is the amount of electricity a generator can produce when it's running at full blast.